Skubl predicts 86% of Primary Schools Face Empty Classrooms in the UK by 2028
Contents
Summary
A new predictive analysis by Skubl reveals that state-funded primary school rolls in England will fall by 173,403 pupils (-4.0%) between 2024/25 and 2028/29. Driven by a decade-long 16.2% drop in live births across England and Wales, this demographic decline is now hitting primary classrooms nationwide.
The analysis shows that 85.9% of primary schools already sit with empty places, with 13.8% of all primary seats remaining unfilled. The sharpest declines are concentrated in Inner London (-9.4%) and coastal towns, with individual local authorities facing pupil losses of up to 17.7%.
National Stats at a Glance
- Total Pupil Deficit (by 2028/29): -173,403 state primary pupils (-4.0% national contraction, falling from 4.36M to 4.19M).
- Reception & Key Stage 1 Loss: -74,679 pupils (-4.2% drop in the youngest cohorts).
- Schools Operating Below Capacity: 85.9% of England’s primary schools already have one or more unfilled places.
- Empty Classroom Seats: 13.8% of all primary school capacity currently sits empty nationwide.
- Decade Birth Slump: Annual live births fell 16.2% between 2013 and 2025 (698,264 down to 585,270), locking in this decline through 2030.
Regional Breakdown: Forecast Change in Primary Rolls (2024/25 → 2028/29)
Primary pupil contraction is affecting every region in England, led by London and the South West.
“With 9 in 10 primary schools sitting on empty places, councils aren’t deciding whether to shrink capacity, they’re deciding which schools to close.“*
— Cameron Batt, Skubl
The 20 Most At-Risk Local Authorities
Forecast change in state primary rolls, 2024/25 → 2028/29. Ranked by percentage fall.
| # | Local authority | 2024/25 | 2028/29 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Islington | 11,713 | 9,645 | -17.7% |
| 2 | Southend-on-Sea | 14,807 | 12,417 | -16.1% |
| 3 | Brighton and Hove | 16,649 | 14,172 | -14.9% |
| 4 | Isle of Wight | 8,504 | 7,372 | -13.3% |
| 5 | Lambeth | 18,036 | 15,652 | -13.2% |
| 6 | Torbay | 9,003 | 7,815 | -13.2% |
| 7 | Southwark | 19,343 | 16,807 | -13.1% |
| 8 | Sutton | 17,537 | 15,251 | -13.0% |
| 9 | Merton | 14,451 | 12,702 | -12.1% |
| 10 | Kingston upon Thames | 12,351 | 10,867 | -12.0% |
| 11 | Hackney | 15,706 | 13,830 | -11.9% |
| 12 | Richmond upon Thames | 15,353 | 13,582 | -11.5% |
| 13 | North East Lincolnshire | 12,818 | 11,372 | -11.3% |
| 14 | Halton | 9,933 | 8,822 | -11.2% |
| 15 | Bury | 15,661 | 13,923 | -11.1% |
| 16 | Nottingham | 26,175 | 23,365 | -10.7% |
| 17 | Lewisham | 21,811 | 19,590 | -10.2% |
| 18 | Westminster | 7,597 | 6,833 | -10.1% |
| 19 | Westmorland and Furness | 14,434 | 12,969 | -10.1% |
| 20 | Calderdale | 17,246 | 15,504 | -10.1% |
The Isles of Scilly (−18.8%) is excluded as an outlier (~144 pupils). Source: DfE local-authority pupil forecasts, 2024/25 release · skubl.com
Regional Breakdown
Forecast change in state primary rolls, 2024/25 → 2028/29, by region of England.
| Region | 2024/25 | 2028/29 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| London | 646,563 | 606,243 | -6.2% |
| South West | 398,978 | 376,285 | -5.7% |
| North East | 198,682 | 188,368 | -5.2% |
| Yorkshire and The Humber | 439,441 | 416,864 | -5.1% |
| North West | 601,065 | 572,970 | -4.7% |
| South East | 704,364 | 681,817 | -3.2% |
| East of England | 499,232 | 486,068 | -2.6% |
| West Midlands | 494,622 | 485,874 | -1.8% |
| East Midlands | 380,567 | 375,622 | -1.3% |
Within London, Inner London (−9.4%) falls faster than Outer London (−4.7%). Source: DfE local-authority pupil forecasts, 2024/25 release · skubl.com
Total Pupil Deficit (by 2028/29): -173,403 state primary pupils (-4.0% national contraction, falling from 4.36M to 4.19M).
Reception & Key Stage 1 Loss: -74,679 pupils (-4.2% drop in the youngest cohorts).
Schools Operating Below Capacity: 85.9% of England’s primary schools already have one or more unfilled places.
Empty Classroom Seats: 13.8% of all primary school capacity currently sits empty nationwide.
Decade Birth Slump: Annual live births fell 16.2% between 2013 and 2025 (698,264 down to 585,270), locking in this decline through 2030.
Core drivers of the primary school
Skubl’s analysis identifies three primary drivers compounding the primary school capacity crisis:
1. The Falling Birth Cohort (Dominant Driver)
Live births across England and Wales fell ~16% over a decade (from 698,264 in 2013 to 585,270 in 2025). With the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) standing at 1.55 in 2024 (well below the 2.1 replacement rate), every year’s Reception intake reflects reduced birth numbers from 4–5 years prior. This decline is mathematically baked into the education pipeline through 2030.
2. Family Out-Migration from High-Cost Cities
High housing costs in inner-city areas—particularly London—are accelerating an outflow of young families. Inner London primary rolls face a steep -9.4% drop, compounding the national birth-rate decline in high-cost urban centers.
3. Lower Net Family Migration & Smaller Family Sizes
Reductions in international family migration alongside shrinking completed family sizes have removed the historical buffer that previously offset urban school rolls, leaving demographic contraction to show through in full.
Methodology & data
All figures in this release trace directly to official accredited datasets:
- Department for Education (DfE): Local-Authority Pupil Forecasts (School Capacity Publication, 2024/25 release).
- Department for Education (DfE): School Capacity (SCAP 2024/25) — primary places, pupils on roll, and unfilled place shares.
- Department for Education (DfE): National Pupil Projections (2026 release) — corroborating national decline on FTE basis.
- Office for National Statistics (ONS / Nomis): Live Births Dataset (NM_205_1), England & Wales.
- World Bank: UK Total Fertility Rate Data (2024).
- Skubl Prediction Ai (2026)
Cameron Batt
Founder @ Skubl and published machine learning researcher.